Greek-Turkish relations are operating successful the vacuum near by the cancellation of the planned Mitsotakis–Erdogan meeting, with the adjacent steps expected to uncover whether this was an isolated incident—reflecting Ankara’s deficiency of existent involvement successful Greek-Turkish matters—or a determination signaling a displacement successful Turkey’s stance aft Erdogan secured an invitation to the White House.
Athens notes that Trump’s praise of Erdogan did not travel with thing tangible for Turkey. There was nary associated connection indicating Erdogan had won much than compliments for his “personality.” Erdogan himself appeared notably reserved erstwhile briefing connected the meeting, not adjacent mentioning Turkey’s instrumentality to the F-35 program.
At the aforesaid time, Athens believes a Trump–Mitsotakis gathering won’t beryllium acold off, fixed the Greek premier minister’s bully connection with the U.S. president.
Athens downplays the cancellation of the Mitsotakis–Erdogan meeting—acknowledging that Erdogan’s crushed was genuine, not a pretext, arsenic it related to his information successful Trump’s gathering with Muslim leaders of the Middle East. For the aforesaid reason, Erdogan besides canceled a gathering with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
Expectations for the Mitsotakis–Erdogan gathering were debased anyway, fixed the constricted scope for rapprochement successful caller months. The extremity was simply a calming brushwood betwixt the 2 leaders amid rising tensions. Mitsotakis planned to rise the request for Turkey to revoke its casus belli successful bid to articulation the SAFE program, and helium had nary involvement successful a gathering that would extremity arsenic a specified photograph opportunity.
Ankara has besides indicated Erdogan volition not be the informal EU acme successful Copenhagen, truthful the rescheduled gathering is not yet connected the table.
The Trump–Erdogan Meeting
The turning constituent for Turkey seems to person been Erdogan’s invitation to the White House and, importantly, his inclusion successful the radical of Arab and Muslim countries negotiating with Trump implicit the Gaza war. Sources accidental Turkey adjacent projected a caller gathering with Mitsotakis the adjacent day, but the Greek premier minister’s docket was already full.
At the UN General Assembly, Erdogan’s apical precedence was to contiguous himself and Turkey arsenic the protector of Palestinian and Muslim interests, showing that adjacent Israel’s strongest backer—Trump—was consenting to judge that role.
This framed Erdogan’s full New York presence, conscionable earlier his long-anticipated instrumentality to the White House aft six years. Though criticized by the absorption for “buying” his invitation done large commercialized deals, neither helium nor Trump seemed concerned. Erdogan’s goals are present clear: assistance restrictions connected defence income and unafraid U.S. guarantees to restrain Israel successful Syria, avoiding nonstop confrontation betwixt Ankara and Tel Aviv.
Despite Trump’s lukewarm words, the gathering near Ankara with galore questions implicit whether the affirmative ambiance would construe into factual results.
At Trump’s Side
As important arsenic the Oval Office photo-op was Erdogan’s quality beside Trump 2 days earlier successful a gathering with Arab and Muslim leaders connected Gaza—symbolically casting him arsenic a co-chair. This was a last-minute shift, arsenic Qatar was initially expected to capable that role. This gathering broke the crystal with Trump, smoothing the mode for their White House encounter.
Notably, aft railing against Israel astatine the UNGA, Erdogan avoided immoderate anti-Israel rhetoric astatine the Oval Office, alert specified remarks would provoke Trump.
Meanwhile, Trump is hosting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu astatine the White House today, wherever his Gaza bid inaugural volition instrumentality shape—with Israel’s relation central, contempt Trump’s earlier informing to Netanyahu not to annex the West Bank.
A Test of Manipulation
The White House gathering allowed Trump to showcase his quality to grip and power a hard overseas person often astatine likelihood with the West.
Erdogan arrived bearing “gifts”: pledges to bargain 200 civilian aircraft, U.S. LNG, modular atomic reactors, and defence equipment. Yet this wasn’t enough. Trump repeated that F-35 income beryllium connected circumstantial conditions, with the S-400 rocket contented inactive unresolved. He adjacent suggested Patriot rocket sales, but lone if Turkey withdraws its S-400s—an highly hard prime for Erdogan, fixed the costs and diplomatic risks of abandoning Moscow.
Trump besides pressed Turkey to halt buying Russian lipid and gas, captious to its vigor needs and Erdogan’s ties with Putin. Even the atomic practice connection was framed arsenic a counterweight to Turkey’s dependence connected Russia for the Akkuyu plant.
Erdogan frankincense realized that flattery unsocial would not suffice with Trump: each tiny concession required large trade-offs, and immoderate treble crippled with Russia, China, oregon Hamas would beryllium dangerous.
Still, Erdogan whitethorn assertion helium withstood the pressure, ended his isolation nether Biden, and reestablished Turkey’s role—now with Trump’s approval—in shaping Middle East security.
Greek-Turkish Angle
Against this volatile backdrop, Greek-Turkish relations stay precarious. Erdogan’s UNGA code made clear: nary task excluding Turkey successful the Eastern Mediterranean volition beryllium implemented; Turkey has rights westbound of Cyprus; and the two-state solution—not federation—is the lone enactment for Cyprus.
This connection signaled that Turkey’s absorption connected Gaza does not mean reduced involvement successful the Eastern Mediterranean.
The cardinal pending contented is the Cyprus–Crete energy interconnection—a large trial for maintaining calm. Mitsotakis and Cypriot President Christodoulides person aligned connected continuing the project, but tensions remain.
Cyprus has acceptable speech €50 cardinal for the task but wants exploratory surveys to resume, which Turkey blocked successful July 2024. Greece is acceptable for this, with plans for the probe vas to notify each coastal states—implicitly including Turkey, which could respond with its ain NAVTEX. This could spark a unsafe escalation contempt efforts to support tensions nether control.
Cypriot sources accidental Nicosia adjacent raised the anticipation of delimiting an EEZ with Greece to unblock progress—an thought Athens rejected arsenic excessively provocative toward Turkey.
Halki Seminary
Athens cautiously welcomed Trump’s reported petition to Erdogan to reopen the Halki Theological Seminary, closed since 1971. Erdogan has repeatedly promised this but tied it to concessions successful Thrace—an unacceptable linkage for Greece.
Despite Turkish statements that a ineligible model for reopening has been found, lone a governmental determination remains. Erdogan present faces the trial of proving his Oval Office remark—that helium volition “do his part” for Halki—was sincere.
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