New Study Explains the Over-40 Birth Surge in Greece

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While wide births successful Greece fell importantly by 30%, births to women aged 40 and implicit grew fivefold since 1990, a caller survey shows.

This older demographic present represents a overmuch larger stock of the total, jumping from conscionable 1.8% successful the aboriginal 1980s to implicit 10% successful 2023–24. Over the aforesaid period, births to women aged 30–39 astir doubled, whereas births from the under-20 and 20–29 property brackets plummeted.

These findings stem from a survey by Byron Kotzamanis, Professor Emeritus of Demography astatine the University of Thessaly and Director of the Institute of Demographic Research and Studies (IDEM).

What is driving the “explosion” of births among older women successful Greece?

The survey looks astatine however overmuch does the fertility complaint of women aged 40–49 interaction existent yearly indicators—which hardly transcend 1.3 children per woman—compared to 30 years ago.

According to Professor Kotzamanis, the answers are clear. “The superior operator of this detonation is the delayed property of childbearing,” helium notes.

“However, implicit the past 20 years, 2 different factors played a cardinal role: the increasing fig and proportionality of women aged 40 and implicit wrong the reproductive population, and advancements successful assisted reproductive technology (ART), which an expanding fig of couples are utilizing.

Nevertheless, portion the publication of births from women aged 40 and implicit to yearly fertility rates is rising, it remains comparatively limited, accounting for little than 8% of these indicators.”

Furthermore, Prof. Kotzamanis emphasizes that advancements successful and expanded entree to ART volition not pb to an summation successful births for women implicit 40 successful the coming decades—even if the mean property of childbearing continues to rise.

This is due to the fact that the wide colonisation of women successful this property bracket, successful the lack of migration, is projected to shrink importantly by 35% betwixt 2025 and 2060, dropping from 770,000 contiguous to 505,000. Consequently, these births volition person a constricted interaction connected the completed fertility of generations calved aft 1980.

Concluding his remarks to the Athens-Macedonian News Agency (AMNA), Professor Kotzamanis warned: “Returning to the commencement levels of 2011–2020 (an mean of 92,000 annually) is impossible. However, slowing down the diminution and yet achieving a gradual betterment from the lowest constituent is feasible nether 2 conditions:

Mitigating the colonisation diminution of women aged 25–44, who relationship for astir 90% of yearly births, done a highly affirmative nett migration equilibrium (more arrivals than departures successful this property bracket).
Increasing the fertility complaint of younger generations. This means raising the mean fig of children from 1.45 (for women calved astir 1985) to 1.7–1.8 (for those calved successful the precocious 2010s) by establishing an exceptionally supportive situation for families and children.

Creating specified an situation would dilatory the rising mean property of childbearing and little today’s exceptionally precocious childlessness rates. Concurrently, it would empower those who privation to person a 2nd oregon 3rd kid to really fulfill that desire.”

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